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在建筑物单体震害预测的基础上，从人与建筑物的相对关系出发，以建筑物容人时间分布曲线和当量人数为指标，建立了预测模型;;并以大连经济技术开发区为例，给出了未来地震中昼夜平均人员伤亡和不同时刻人员伤亡的预测结果，
Based on the prediction of single building seismic damage and the relative relationship between people and buildings, the forecasting model is established based on the time distribution curve and the equivalent number of buildings. Based on the analysis of the prediction model of Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone For example, the forecast of the average day and night casualties and casualties at different times in the future earthquakes are given.