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利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,实证检验1984—2013年我国的金融政策组合的企业技术创新效应,目的是考察我国宏观金融政策组合对企业技术创新的影响效应。研究发现:(1)货币政策和信贷政策对企业技术创新的增长效应显著,其中货币政策的短期效应大于长期效应,而信贷政策是长期效应大于短期效应;(2)人民币实际汇率对企业技术创新的作用随着滞后期的推移不断弱化,且对企业技术创新的影响是长期效应大于短期效应;(3)利率政策的技术创新效应并不显著。故而,研究金融政策组合差别化的作用,正确甄选和优化金融政策组合,对推动企业技术创新能力的提升具有重要意义。
Using ARDL model, this paper empirically tests the effect of technological innovation in China’s financial policy portfolio from 1984 to 2013 with the purpose of examining the effect of macro-financial policy portfolio on the technological innovation in China. The findings are as follows: (1) Monetary and credit policies have significant growth effects on technological innovation of enterprises, in which the short-term effect of monetary policy is greater than that of long-term effect, while the long-term effect of credit policy is greater than short-term effect; (2) The effect of which is weakened continuously with the lag period, and the impact on the technological innovation of enterprises is that the long-term effect is greater than the short-term effect; (3) The technological innovation effect of interest rate policy is not significant. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the role of the differentiation of financial policy portfolio, correctly select and optimize the financial policy portfolio, and promote the improvement of technological innovation capability of enterprises.