论文部分内容阅读
2015年我国农药行业调整预计贯穿全年。从供应看,今年上半年全国累计生产农药180.7万t,增幅由去年同期0.7%上升到3.2%,供应过剩态势依然严峻;今年农药出口受阻,上半年我国农药原药出口交货值169.19亿元,同比下降14%,随着国外采购传统旺季的到来,预计今年后半程农药出口有所改善;从价格上看,国际市场需求不足,导致行业整体上呈现低速下行的态势,从2014年3季度以来,中国农药产品出口呈现量价齐跌的态势,大宗农药产品出现跌多涨少态势。目前,6—7月我国整体农药市场进入淡季,原药工厂进入盘整阶段,行情变化不大,预计下半年价量会有所好转,不过出现V型反转的概率不大。
2015 pesticide industry in China is expected to adjust throughout the year. From the perspective of supply, in the first half of this year, a total of 1.870 million tons of pesticides were produced in the country, up by 3.2% from 0.7% in the same period of last year. The situation of excess supply is still grim. Pesticide export was blocked this year. In the first half of this year, the export delivery value of China’s pesticide raw materials was 16.919 billion yuan , Down 14% YoY. With the arrival of the traditional shopping season in foreign countries, the export of pesticides is expected to improve in the second half of this year. From a price point of view, the demand in the international market is insufficient, leading to a slowdown in the industry as a whole. Since the beginning of the quarter, the export volume of pesticide products in China has shown a trend of volume and price drop, and the emergence of large quantities of pesticide products has seen more and more rise. At present, the overall pesticide market in China entered the off-season in June-July. The original drug factory entered a consolidation phase with little change in market conditions. It is estimated that the price will be somewhat improved in the second half of the year, but the probability of V-reversal is not high.