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FMS可靠性分析和故障诊断技术的研究对于提高FMS的生产率具有重要意义。本文通过分析FMS可靠性研究中存在的问题，针对FMS的运行特点．提出了两个衡量FMS可靠性的指标─—FMS停机概率和可靠生产率。给出了利用有色广义随机Petri网建立FMS可靠性模型和计算可靠性指标的方法。这种方法从系统角度研究了FMS的可靠性问题，能够明确反映FMS运行中各种故障对于FMS生产率的影响，具有良好的理论意义及应用前景。
The research of FMS reliability analysis and fault diagnosis technology is of great significance to improve the productivity of FMS. In this paper, the problems existing in the research of FMS reliability are analyzed and the operation characteristics of FMS are analyzed. Two metrics for measuring the reliability of FMS - the FMS downtime and reliable productivity - were proposed. The method of establishing FMS reliability model and calculating the reliability index by using the colored Generalized Stochastic Petri Net is given. This method studies the reliability of FMS from a system perspective and can clearly reflect the impact of various faults in FMS operation on the FMS productivity, which has good theoretical significance and application prospect.