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中国正在经历严重的产能过剩。从需求方面分析,采用修正后的GDP数据,我估计2000年到2005年期间的固定投资占中国GDP增长的58%。产能过剩可能会迫使中国减缓固定投资。随着海外工厂向中国搬迁热的退潮,我预计出口增长将从2005年的28%降至2006年的15%。那么2006年中国的高增长由什么来支撑呢? 过分追求GDP增长中国在制造、电力、公路、港口以及房地产等领域可能都存在过度投资现象。这些领域在2005年经济增长
China is experiencing a serious overcapacity. From the demand side analysis and the revised GDP data, I estimate that fixed investment from 2000 to 2005 will account for 58% of China’s GDP growth. Overcapacity could force China to slow down its fixed investment. With overseas factories relocating to China for hot ebb, I expect export growth to drop from 28% in 2005 to 15% in 2006. So what is China’s high growth supported in 2006? To Excessively Pursue GDP Growth China may have over-investment in the fields of manufacturing, electricity, roads, ports and real estate. These areas grew in 2005