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通过建立房地产销售额与经济增长的逻辑分析框架,探讨我国不同地区房地产销售对经济增长的作用机理,并利用2000~2012年中国35个大中城市面板数据相继进行平稳性、协整性和格兰杰因果检验,最终建立固定效应回归模型。研究发现:1东部地区和中部地区房地产销售对该地区的经济增长具有单向因果关系,西部地区房地产销售与经济增长关系不显著;2东部地区和中部地区房地产销售额的弹性系数分别为0.60和0.54,而西部地区房地产销售额的弹性系数为0.24。因此,在各地区的房地产销售对经济增长影响大小存在明显差异的情况下,各地区制定经济发展规划时,应该考虑该地区房地产业的影响机制,并进行相应调控。
Through the establishment of the logical analysis framework of real estate sales and economic growth, this paper explores the mechanism of real estate sales in different regions of China on economic growth. Using the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2000 to 2012, Langer causality test, the final establishment of a fixed effect regression model. The results show that: 1The real estate sales in the eastern and central regions have a one-way causal relationship with the economic growth in the region; the relationship between real estate sales and economic growth in the western region is insignificant; 2The elasticity of real estate sales in the eastern and central regions is 0.60 and 0.54, while the elasticity of real estate sales in the western region is 0.24. Therefore, when there are obvious differences in the impact of real estate sales on economic growth in various regions, all regions should consider the impact mechanism of the real estate industry and make corresponding adjustments and controls when formulating economic development plans.