中国经济不会“硬着陆”

• 作 者: 格泽高滋·W·科勒德克 张璐晶
• 机 构: 波兰华沙科兹明斯基大学,波兰智库,
• 出 处: 中国经济周刊
• 发表日期: 2013年47期
• 关键词: 中国经济 硬着陆 发展经济学 经济下滑 产出水平 软着陆 经济体 直角 术语 飞机

中国经济“硬着陆”也并非完全不可能,它面临的困难和挑战是众多的。长远来看,最主要的挑战是人口老龄化带来的社会经济成果和人口红利正在消失。在发展经济学里,有一个很常见的术语叫“硬着陆”。与之相对应的是“软着陆”。后者指的是经济(尤指过热经济体)发展从高产出水平采取逐渐平缓的方式减速下行。“硬着陆”则指的是经济急剧下降,就像一架飞机以近乎直角的方式悲惨着陆一样。对于经济来说,它不一定指的是经济下滑至零,而是以大大低于此前的速度下行。

It is not impossible for the Chinese economy to “hard landing.” Its difficulties and challenges are numerous. In the long run, the most important challenge is the disappearance of the socio-economic achievements and demographic dividends brought about by the aging population. In development economics, there is a very common term called “hard landing.” Corresponding to it is “soft landing ”. The latter refers to the slowdown in the economy, especially in the overheated economy, from a gradual and gradual slowdown in its high output levels. “Hard landing” refers to a sharp decline in the economy, just as a plane landed tragically in near-right angles. For the economy, it does not necessarily mean that the economy has slipped to zero, but at a much lower rate than before.