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美国经济已经完全修复了次贷危机的创伤,危机成为过去式。虽然尚有不稳定因素,但美国经济走出了萧条,处于即将进入复苏阶段的转折点。美国经济的大修复预示着主要金融资产和商品价格的逆转,零利率时代成为过去,贵金属、贱金属和其他大宗商品价格将会发生调整,但由于复苏动力的不确定性,调整会有反复,波动率加大。美国经济的大修复还会对主要经济体形成冲击,欧元区瓦解的可能性加大,日本经济继续停滞,中国人民币汇率和资产价格将面临重估压力。从积极的方面看,美国经济大修复的冲击或许会成为倒逼我国加快改革的契机。
The U.S. economy has completely repaired the trauma of the subprime mortgage crisis and the crisis has become a legacy. Although there are still unstable factors, the U.S. economy has come out of recession and is at a turning point at an upcoming stage of recovery. The overhaul of the U.S. economy signals a reversal in the prices of major financial assets and commodities. As the zero-interest rate era has passed, prices of precious metals, base metals and other commodities will be adjusted. However, due to the uncertainty of the recovery momentum, adjustments will be repeated. Volatility increased. Major repairs to the U.S. economy will also hit the major economies. The possibility of a disintegration of the Eurozone will increase. As Japan’s economy continues to stagnate, China’s Renminbi exchange rate and asset prices will face revaluation pressures. On the positive side, the impact of a major economic recovery in the United States may turn into an opportunity for our country to speed up the reform.