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构建了二元经济结构下汇率变动对农产品进出口贸易影响的模型,并结合我国数据进行了实证分析。通过引入非农就业人口比重作为二元经济结构的代理变量,发现其是促进我国农产品出口和缓解贸易逆差的最重要的因素;此外,人民币贬值、外国加权GDP以及出口退税的增加将会促进农产品出口,而人民币升值、国内GDP的提高以及国际石油价格的上涨将会增加农产品进口。因此,解决我国农产品贸易逆差问题的有效办法是改善二元经济结构和放缓人民币升值速度。
Build a model of the impact of exchange rate changes on the import and export of agricultural products under the dual economic structure, and empirical analysis based on China’s data. By introducing the proportion of non-farm payrolls as a proxy for the dual economic structure, we find that it is the most important factor to promote China’s agricultural exports and ease the trade deficit. In addition, RMB devaluation, foreign-weighted GDP and export tax rebates will promote the growth of agricultural products Exports, and the appreciation of RMB, the increase of domestic GDP and the rise of international oil prices will increase the import of agricultural products. Therefore, the effective solution to the problem of China’s agricultural trade deficit is to improve the dual economic structure and slow down the rate of RMB appreciation.