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系统搜集了中国590个雨量站和383个水文站1956~2000年长序列月降水量与月径流量资料,及1978~2000年全国各省、自治区的旱涝受灾与成灾面积、灌区面积、已建水库库容等数据资料,全面分析了地表径流时空演变特征以及农业旱涝灾害的时空分布特征,并分析了其原因及可能影响,研究结果表明,中国北方降水减少,其中山东和黄河中游地区的降水量减小最显著。另外,冬季降水增加明显,而春秋季降水减少明显,极易导致春秋旱灾;北方地区降水减少是造成地表径流量减小的主要原因,农业灌溉进一步加剧地表径流量减小,南方径流量的增加主要是由降水量增加引起的;降水时空分布不均匀造成水资源分布不均,进而造成大部分地区农业受旱涝灾害面积呈增加趋势,其中旱灾受灾面积远大于水灾的受灾面积;农村水利基础设施(灌区、水库等)能提高地区的抗旱能力,但是对洪涝灾害的影响没有旱灾那么明显。节水灌溉技术的推广应用是北方地区在水资源短缺的前提下保证农业生产稳定的重要措施。
The system collects data of monthly precipitation and lunar runoff of 590 rainfall stations and 383 hydrological stations in China from 1956 to 2000 and data of drought floods and flood affected areas and irrigated areas in all provinces and autonomous regions from 1978 to 2000 in China. Reservoir capacity and other data data, a comprehensive analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface runoff and spatial and temporal distribution of agricultural droughts and floods, and analyze the causes and possible effects, the results show that precipitation in northern China decreased, of which the middle reaches of Shandong and the Yellow River Precipitation decreased the most significant. In addition, the precipitation increased obviously in winter and decreased significantly in spring and autumn, which could easily lead to spring and autumn droughts. The decrease of precipitation in northern China was the main reason for the decrease of surface runoff. The decrease of surface runoff and the increase of runoff in the south Which is mainly caused by the increase of precipitation. The non-uniform distribution of precipitation in time and space causes the uneven distribution of water resources, which in turn leads to an increase in the area affected by droughts and floods in most areas. The area affected by drought is much larger than that affected by floods. Facilities (irrigated areas, reservoirs, etc.) can improve drought resilience in the region, but their impact on floods is less obvious than in drought. The popularization and application of water-saving irrigation technology is an important measure to ensure the stability of agricultural production in northern China under the premise of water shortage.