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通过浙江省11大客源城市1990-2014年相关数据实证分析,发现一级客源市场经济与目的地旅游业间存在长期均衡关系,浙江经济增长对旅游业带来的冲击效应和持续时间较长,上海有一定推动作用,江苏持续时间较短;二级和三级客源市场只有部分存在长期均衡关系,与目的地旅游业间不存在显著的因果关系,但会给目的地旅游业带来短暂的、较强的冲击。开展特色旅游、打造旅游品牌、发挥交通优势以及充分利用互联网影响等消除影响旅游业发展的敏感性因素,成为促进旅游业稳健增长的主要政策建议。
Through the empirical analysis of relevant data from 11 major source cities in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 2014, it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between primary market-originating tourism and destination tourism. The impact and duration of Zhejiang’s economic growth on tourism are more Long, Shanghai has a certain role in promoting, Jiangsu has a short duration; only two part of the secondary and tertiary source markets have a long-term equilibrium relationship with the destination tourism there is no significant causal relationship, but will give the destination tourism zone To short-term, strong impact. It is a major policy suggestion to promote the steady growth of tourism by carrying out the special tourism, building the tourism brand, making full use of the transportation advantages and making full use of the Internet to eliminate the sensitive factors that affect the development of the tourism industry.