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研究城市动态交通网络紧急疏散路线确定问题。针对城市交通网络的不确定性并考虑到智能交通系统的发展,在分析城市灾害应急管理对疏散路线确定要求的基础上,提出通过离线方式确定预案和根据实时信息调整预案的紧急疏散路线确定的方法,简介了实现该方法的系统结构。在离线模块中,利用已有路网统计先验信息建立基于时间依赖网络城市交通紧急疏散线路预案的确定模型,采用最小费用流与时间依赖非FIFO网络最短路的综合算法对模型进行优化求解;在在线调度模块中,采用非参数回归方法预测动态路阻,建立基于实时信息的紧急疏散线路模型,采用F loyd算法进行优化求解,对方案予以调整;仿真试验分析了该智能思想的效果,证明了该原理与方法的有效性。
To study the problem of emergency evacuation routes in urban dynamic traffic network. Considering the uncertainty of urban traffic network and taking into account the development of intelligent transportation system, based on the analysis of the emergency evacuation route requirements for urban disaster emergency management, the paper proposes to determine the emergency evacuation route through off-line determination of the plan and real-time information adjustment plan Method, describes the system structure to achieve this method. In the offline module, the deterministic model of the emergency evacuation route based on time-dependent network is established by using the prior information of the existing road network statistics. The minimum cost flow and the time-dependent non-shortest path FIFO algorithm are used to optimize the model. In the online dispatching module, the non-parametric regression method is used to predict the dynamic path resistance, and the emergency evacuation line model based on real-time information is established. F loyd algorithm is adopted to optimize the solution and the solution is adjusted. The simulation experiment analyzes the effect of the intelligent thought, The effectiveness of the principle and method.