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目的探索捕获-再捕获法在静脉注射吸毒人员基数估计中的应用,并对广东省某市静脉注射吸毒人员基数进行估计。方法采用捕获-再捕获法,利用市强制戒毒所登记的资料,估计全市静脉注射吸毒人员的基数。结果用捕获-再捕获法估计全市静脉注射吸毒人数为13017。结论运用捕获-再捕获法对静脉注射吸毒人数进行估计经济易行,结果较为可靠,较适合在卫生资源有限的情况下进行高危人群基数估计。
Objective To explore the application of capture - recapture in cardinality estimation of intravenous drug addicts and to estimate the cardinality of intravenous drug addicts in a certain city in Guangdong Province. Methods The capture - recapture method was used to estimate the cardinal number of intravenous drug addicts in the city by using the data registered by the compulsory drug rehabilitation center in the city. Results The capture-recapture method was used to estimate the number of intravenous drug users in the city to be 13017. Conclusions The use of capture - recapture method to estimate the number of intravenous drug addicts is easy and economical. The result is reliable and suitable for estimating the cardinal number of high risk population with limited health resources.