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系统分析新疆工业化、城镇化和能源消费的历史演变及特征,并采用动态计量经济模型,实证研究1978—2011年新疆工业化、城镇化与能源消费之间的动态影响。研究表明,改革开放以来新疆的能源消费增长分别与工业化、城镇化存在着长期稳定的比例关系;能源消费与工业化和城镇化互为Granger因果关系;新疆的工业化水平提升1%,能源消费将增长4.776%;城镇化水平提升1%,能源消费将增长4.047%。城镇化和工业化对能源消费的影响程度要远远高于能源消费对城镇化和工业化的影响程度,并且能源消费对工业化的促进作用要强于对城镇化的促进作用。
This paper systematically analyzes the historical evolution and characteristics of industrialization, urbanization and energy consumption in Xinjiang and uses the dynamic econometric model to empirically study the dynamic impact of industrialization, urbanization and energy consumption in Xinjiang during 1978-2011. Research shows that since the reform and opening up, Xinjiang’s energy consumption growth has long-term and stable relationship with industrialization and urbanization respectively. Granger causality has been associated with energy consumption and industrialization and urbanization. The level of industrialization in Xinjiang has risen by 1% and energy consumption will increase 4.776%; urbanization level increased by 1%, energy consumption will increase by 4.047%. The impact of urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption is much higher than the impact of energy consumption on urbanization and industrialization, and the promotion effect of energy consumption on industrialization is stronger than the promotion of urbanization.