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许多前兆观测序列无理论值可循,又受环境因子干扰,因此很难评定质量和识别异常。本文从系统论、控制论出发,用M(t),S(t),η_1(t)和η_2(t)四个状态变量的动态灰箱,拟合并推估观测系统的正常变化。客观地建立评定信息和识别异常的准则与定量标准。 最后处理了若干跨断层地形变和地下水动态观测资料,证实本法能对各台站观测环境和质量作出客观评定;且能更好地排除干扰,提高信息分辩能力,增进异常与地震的对应率;也能为活断层和工程场地烈度研究提供信息。
Many precursory observation sequences have no theoretical value and are disturbed by environmental factors, making it difficult to assess quality and identify anomalies. In this paper, from the system theory and control theory, we use the dynamic gray box of four state variables M (t), S (t), η_1 (t) and η_2 (t) to fit and estimate the normal variation of the observed system. Objectively establish criteria and quantitative criteria for assessing information and identifying anomalies. Finally, a number of cross-fault deformations and groundwater dynamic observations were processed to confirm that this method can objectively assess the observational environment and quality of each station and can better eliminate interference and improve the ability of information discerning and increase the correspondence between anomalies and earthquakes It can also provide information for the study of active fault and engineering site intensity.