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本文使用由不同的全球模拟所产生的区域性耦合海洋-大气模型,通过数值模型试验探讨了波罗的海气候未来可能的物理状况。将一些情景以及近来的一些气候模拟情况作了比较,以估计气候变化。海面温度总体平均明显地增高2.9℃。平均年平均增温的水平模式主要可由冰盖的减少解释。由大气向波罗的海的热输送表现出季节性变化周期:秋季热损失减少,春季热吸收增加,夏季热吸收减少。年际间海面温度的变化一般是在增加。这与北部一些中平滑的频率分布有关。全部热收支表示出海面太阳辐射在增加,而太阳辐射增加由热通量其他组成成分的变化所平衡。
In this paper, a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model generated by different global simulations is used to investigate the possible future physical conditions of the Baltic Sea climate through numerical model tests. Some scenarios are compared with some recent climate simulations to assess climate change. The overall average sea surface temperature increased significantly 2.9 ℃. The average annual average temperature increase in the horizontal pattern can mainly be explained by the decrease of the ice sheet. The heat transport from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a seasonal change cycle: reduced heat loss in autumn, increased heat absorption in spring, and decreased heat absorption in summer. Inter-annual sea surface temperature changes are generally increasing. This is related to the smoothed frequency distribution in the north. The total heat budget shows that the solar radiation on the sea is increasing, while the increase in solar radiation is balanced by changes in other components of the heat flux.