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本文研究了杂草防治中的不确定性对经济阈值/关键密度模型的影响,讨论了不确定性的两个主要来源:潜在的杂草密度及作物损失函数的形式;讨论了决定一种作物中杂草是否要进行防治的一系列决策原则,包括最大纯收益原则、最大最小收益原则及平均风险分析法。并以麦田中的野燕麦为例说明了各决策原则是如何作为经济阈值的。如果有风险厌恶,则杂草密度及损失函数的不确定性可使杂草的防治为最优的决策与具体的杂草阈值密度无关的可能性增大。
This paper examines the impact of uncertainty in weed control on economic threshold / key density models, discusses two main sources of uncertainty: potential weed densities and forms of crop loss functions; discusses the implications of determining a crop Weed control whether a series of decision-making principles, including the principle of maximum net income, the principle of maximum and minimum returns and the average risk analysis. The case of wild oats in wheat fields is used as an example to illustrate how each decision principle can be used as an economic threshold. If there is risk aversion, the uncertainty of the weed density and loss function increases the likelihood that weed control will be optimal regardless of the specific weed threshold density.