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考察中国近代经济史,本文发现近代中国不同产业走上了不同的技术进步道路。有的产业(如纺纱、造船、钢铁、采矿、铁路、邮电通信等)技术进步一步到位,整体引进西方的先进技术;而有些产业(如织布、磨粉、榨油、缫丝、丝织等)则采取了渐进式的技术进步道路。本文在一个简单的两部门模型中分析了落后国家这种二元技术进步现象。决定这种二元技术进步的仍然是落后国家的比较优势:对于那些落后国家具有比较优势的产业,技术进步只能采取渐进式的发展道路;那些比较劣势的产业,反倒能够采取一步到位的技术进步。对经济史中落后国家二元技术进步道路的考察对于当今中国发展战略研究以及发展中国家产业发展道路选择具有非常重大的借鉴意义。
After examining the economic history of modern China, this article finds that different industries in modern China embarked on different paths of technological progress. Some industries (such as spinning, shipbuilding, steel, mining, railways, telecommunications and so on) have advanced in one step and introduced the advanced technology of the West as a whole. In some industries (such as weaving, milling, oil extraction, reeling, Weaving, etc.) has taken a gradual path of technological progress. In a simple two-part model, this article analyzes the binary technological progress in underdeveloped countries. Determining this binary technological progress is still the comparative advantage of backward countries: for those backward countries with comparative advantages in industries, technological progress can only take a gradual path of development; those less advantaged industries can instead adopt one-stop technologies progress. The investigation of the binary technological progress in underdeveloped countries in economic history is very significant for the study of China’s development strategy and the choice of the road to industrial development in developing countries.