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本项研究是ＰＭＩＰ（ＰａｌａｅｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇＩｎｔｅｒｃｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ）国际合作项目中有关模型模拟与观测资料对比的一部分。模型试验对象是６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ的全球湿润状况。模拟试验以检测太阳辐射变化对全球大尺度气候系统的影响为主要目的。观测资料是利用地质证据恢复的古湖泊水位变化，实际上是某一地区的有效降水（降水减蒸发）的变化。通过两者的比较发现，所有模拟试验均能重现６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ在亚洲南部与非洲北部的湿润环境，从而证实了因太阳辐射变化导致的亚洲与非洲季风的增强。但模拟的季风增强无论是强度还是范围均小于地质记录。原因很可能是模拟试验中下垫面特征用“现代”的来处理。模拟试验对北半球夏季辐射增加造成的西风带北移及由此引起的中纬度地区的气候变化不够成功。绝大多数模拟对受洋流与海温影响较大的地区是失败的。主要原因可能是所有ＰＭＩＰ中的模拟试验都未考虑海洋的作用。
This study is part of a comparison of model simulations and observations in the International Collaboration Project PMIP (Palaeoclimate Modeling International Project). The model test object is 6000yr. BP’s global wet conditions. Simulation experiments to detect changes in solar radiation on the global large-scale climate system as the main purpose. Observational data is the change of water level of ancient lakes restored by geological evidence, which is actually the change of effective precipitation (rainfall minus evaporation) in a certain area. Through the comparison of the two found that all simulation tests can reproduce 6000yr. The humid environment of BP in southern Asia and northern Africa confirms the increase of monsoon in Asia and Africa caused by the change of solar radiation. However, the simulated monsoon enhancement is less than the geologic record both in intensity and range. The reason may well be that the underlying features in the simulations have been dealt with “modern”. Simulations have been unsuccessful for the northward westerly shift caused by the increased radiation in the northern hemisphere in summer and the resulting climate change in the middle latitudes. Most simulations fail in areas heavily influenced by currents and sea temperatures. The main reason may be that all the PMIP simulation experiments did not consider the role of the oceans.