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1997年7月从泰国开始的东南亚金融危机,扩展到韩国、日本,波及俄罗斯、欧美各国,震撼世界。其“多米诺骨牌效应”的“震级”之大、“烈度”之广、危害之劣、教训之深刻,实为1929年世界经济危机“狼来了”的末日重演。特别令人切痛深思的是:在当今冷战结束,全球金融、经济一体化发展趋势的新格局体系中,在世界工业化浪潮正驱入信息革命、知识经济时代的“转型”期间,科技进步与创新高速发展的“反差”形势之下而爆发的这场金融危机,更值得反思与回顾。纵观世界各国经济学家、权威人士对东南亚金融危机成因的多种评说,无非大同小异,皆视其客观外因与主观内因之根源所在。归属为“高楼现象”、“东亚模式”、“虚拟繁荣”、“泡沫经济”恶性膨胀;国家宏观调控失策,产业结构权重失调,金融监管不力、制度软化,银行呆帐积重、负债经营、资产效益低下;加之国际网络效应、游资冲击、炒家投机等多重负效应联网激励,迫使危机一触即发。它确实验证了不少经济学家、权威人士多年前的预言,如美国保罗·克鲁格曼的《亚州奇迹的神话》;拉鲁什的《即将到来的金融市场解体》;德国纳丹·泰纳鲍姆在1995年预言:世界将爆发金融和经济秩序总危机;德国总统希拉克在哈利法克斯高峰经济会议时就曾提出警告:世界金融市场存在一个庞大的“投机泡沫”、“金融癌症”;诺贝尔经济学奖获得者法国阿莱目睹世界金融体系的发展趋势,称其为“发疯”的“赌场”等等这一切评论和预言皆有据成理,笔者认为:一个引发如此震惊全球的危机灾难,其潜在的、更深层次的原由和内涵根源恐怕应归结为:知识经济的贫困、科技创新的落后。本文对此作一透析,供参考与商榷。
The Southeast Asian financial crisis started in July 1997 from Thailand to South Korea and Japan and spread to Russia, Europe and the United States, shocking the world. Its “domino effect ” “Magnitude ” of the large, “intensity ” wide, endanger the bad, the profound lesson, in fact, the world economic crisis in 1929 “the wolf ” the end of the repeat. What is particularly painful is that in the new pattern of the end of the Cold War and the development trend of global financial and economic integration, as the wave of industrialization in the world is driving into the “transition” of the information revolution and knowledge-based economy, science and technology The financial crisis that broke out under the “contrast” situation of rapid development and innovation is even more worthy of reflection and review. Looking at the various comments made by economists and authorities from all over the world on the causes of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia is more or less the same, considering both the objective external causes and the subjective internal causes. Attribution belongs to the “high-rise phenomenon”, “East Asian model”, “virtual prosperity”, “bubble economy” vicious expansion; national macro-control failure, imbalance of industrial structure, poor financial supervision, system softening, Bad debts, debt management and low asset returns. Coupled with multiple negative effects such as international network effects, hot money shocks and speculation by speculators, the crisis is impending. It indeed verified the predictions of many economists and authorities over many years ago, such as the “miracle of Asian miracles” by Paul Krugman in the United States; the “dissolution of the upcoming financial markets” by Larusch; Tyner Baum predicted in 1995 that the world will erupt with a general crisis in the financial and economic order. German President Jacques Chirac warned at the peak economic conference in Halifax that there was a huge “speculative bubble” in world financial markets “, ” Financial cancer “; Nobel laureate in economics Laurel, France witnessed the development trend of the world financial system, called ” casino "and so on all the comments and predictions There is a reasonable principle, I believe: a triggered a crisis so shocked the world of the disaster, its potential, deeper roots of causes and content should probably be attributed to: the poverty of knowledge-based economy, technological innovation, backwardness. This article makes a dialysis for reference and discussion.