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[目的]预测成都市新都区麻疹的发病趋势,为制定防治措施提供参考依据。[方法]以1985～2008年成都市新都区麻疹年发病率作为历史序列,建立自回归移动平均(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA)模型。[结果]采用ARIMA(1,2,0)预测该地区麻疹的发病趋势,2009～2012年麻疹的发病率分别为2.66/10万、1.65/10万、0.88/10万、0.35/10万。[结论]至2012年该地区达到WHO和我国提出消除麻疹水平(1/100万以下)的要求尚存在一定差距,因此,当前应进一步加强本地区麻疹预防控制措施的力度。
[Objective] To forecast the trend of measles in Xindu District of Chengdu and provide reference for making prevention and control measures. [Method] Taking the annual incidence of measles as a historical sequence from 1985 to 2008 in Xindu District, Chengdu, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was established. [Results] The incidence of measles in the area was predicted by ARIMA (1, 2, 0). The incidence of measles in 2009 ~ 2012 was 2.66 / 100 000, 1.65 / 100 000, 0.88 / 100 000, 0.35 / 100 000 respectively. [Conclusion] There is still some gap between the WHO and China in 2012 to reach the target of eliminating measles (below 1 million) in this area. Therefore, we should further strengthen measles prevention and control measures in this area by 2012.