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本文运用海南省、云南省西双版纳州496个橡胶种植户对价格稳定基金的调查数据,拟合了不同分布假设下上限、下限触发价格以及保本价。研究表明,Weibull分布比较适合下限、上限触发价格,保本价格在对称分布假设下更优;为保证整体样本60%的参与率,云南西双版纳价格稳定基金的上限、下限触发价格应分别设置为29.12、20.09元/公斤,海南29.71、19.0元/公斤;家庭种植橡胶的保本价为18.4元/公斤,主观可以容忍下降幅度为保本价的12.8%。
Based on the survey data of 496 rubber growers in Hainan Province and Xishuangbanna Prefecture of Yunnan Province on the price stability fund, the upper bound, the lower trigger price and the guaranteed price under different distribution assumptions are fitted. The research shows that the Weibull distribution is more suitable for the lower limit and the upper limit trigger price, and the capital preservation price is better under the assumption of symmetry distribution. To ensure the 60% participation rate of the whole sample, the upper and lower trigger prices of the price stability fund in Yunnan Xishuangbanna should be set to 29.12, 20.09 yuan / kg, Hainan 29.71,19.0 yuan / kg; home planting rubber for the price of 18.4 yuan / kg, the subjective can tolerate the decline of 12.8% of the guaranteed price.