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国际石油价格在去年四季度涨到5年来高峰之后,今年1月中旬开始呈下跌趋势。国外各石油机构和能源分析专家在新年伊始也纷纷对1997年世界石油价格走势发表评说。但是对国际石油市场中短期预测众说纷纭,这种情况为近年来所少见。 例如,诸多石油分析家对北海布伦特油1997年平均价格预测一致认为今年价格要走低,但低到什么程度却各不相同。低者预测油价在每桶18美元左右,高者则认为油价应在每桶21美元上下。
After the international oil price rose to the peak of five years in the fourth quarter of last year, the international oil price began to decline in mid-January this year. Foreign oil agencies and energy analysts also commented on the world oil price movements in 1997 at the beginning of the new year. However, there are different opinions on short-term and medium-term forecasts in the international oil market. This situation is rare in recent years. For example, many oil analysts unanimously agreed on the average 1997 Brent oil price forecast for North Sea this year to lower prices but to a lesser extent. The lower forecast oil prices around 18 US dollars a barrel, the higher that the price should be 21 US dollars a barrel up and down.