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目的围绕学校内影响传染病流行的风险因素建立指标体系,进行早期风险识别,试图在传染病流行之前发现风险因子。方法利用文献研究和实地考察的方法确定初步指标体系框架,应用Delphi法和AHP法,构建学校传染病流行的风险识别指标体系并计算其各指标权重,最后利用问卷调查法进行实证分析研究。结果研究共邀请专家20名,专家对于指标体系做出决策的依据指数Ca为0.88,熟悉程度Cs为0.72,权威系数Cr为0.80。专家协调系数分别为第1轮0.233(P<0.05),第2轮为0.754(P<0.01),第3轮0.504(P<0.01)。最终指标体系由3个一级指标、10个二级指标,49个三级指标组成。结论学校传染病流行的风险识别指标体系协调性好,权重系数设置合理,简单易于使用。
Objective To establish an index system based on the risk factors affecting the epidemic of epidemics in schools and identify early risks so as to find out the risk factors before the spread of infectious diseases. Methods The method of literature review and field investigation were used to identify the framework of the preliminary index system. Delphi method and AHP method were used to establish the risk identification index system of epidemic of infectious diseases in schools and calculate the weight of each index. Finally, empirical analysis was conducted by questionnaire survey. Results A total of 20 experts were invited to study. The index of experts based on the index system, Ca, was 0.88, familiarity was 0.72, and authority coefficient was 0.80. The expert coordination coefficient was 0.233 (P <0.05) in the first round, 0.754 (P <0.01) in the second round and 0.504 in the third round (P <0.01). The final index system consists of three first-level indicators, ten second-level indicators and 49 third-level indicators. Conclusion The risk identification index system of epidemic of epidemics in schools is good, the weight coefficient is set reasonably, and it is simple and easy to use.