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为探究落叶松毛虫种群数量与气象因子的关系,利用大兴安岭地区落叶松毛虫发生年度监测数据与气象数据构建线性回归模型,以赤池信息量准则为评价依据,通过逐步回归的方式从拟合优度和复杂度两方面权衡选取最优模型.采用相对权重法确定影响落叶松毛虫种群数量的关键气象因子,并量化了关键气象因子对松毛虫种群数量的影响.结果表明:低龄幼虫期和繁殖期是影响落叶松毛虫种群数量的关键时期,而中龄幼虫期和高龄幼虫期的影响较弱;低龄幼虫期日相对湿度均值、低龄幼虫越冬期日均温小于-22℃积温和繁殖期降水总量是影响落叶松毛虫种群数量的关键气象因子;低龄幼虫期日相对湿度均值和繁殖期降水总量的标准差每增加1倍,落叶松毛虫种群数量的标准差分别减少62%和35%;低龄幼虫越冬期日均温小于-22℃积温的标准差每增加1倍,落叶松毛虫种群数量的标准差增加40%.表明全球气候变暖趋势下落叶松毛虫的爆发特点等可能呈现出新的形式,建立长期的种群数量监测体系尤为重要.
In order to explore the relationship between the population of Dendrolimus slosa and climatic factors, a linear regression model was constructed based on the annual monitoring data and the meteorological data of Larix caterpillar population in the Greater Xing’an Mountains. Based on the Chi-Chi information criterion and the regression model, And complexity, the optimal model was weighed, the relative merit method was used to determine the key meteorological factors influencing the population of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis, and the effects of key meteorological factors on the population of Dendrolimus punctatus were quantified.The results showed that: Is the critical period affecting the population of Dendrolimus slosa caterpillars, while the effects of middle-aged larvae and young larvae are weaker. The average relative humidity of young larvae is lower than that of -22 ℃ and the total precipitation during breeding season is The main meteorological factors affecting the population of Dendrolimus slosa caterpillars; the standard deviation of population densities of Dendrolimus spectabilis decreased by 62% and 35% respectively when the relative standard deviations of the mean daily relative humidity of the young larvae and the standard deviation of the total precipitation during the breeding season were doubled; For each doubling of the standard deviation of the accumulated daily temperature less than -22 ℃, the population of Dendrolimus Standard deviation increased by 40%, indicating that the outbreak of Dendrolimus features such as global warming trends may present new forms, the number of long-term population monitoring system is particularly important.