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即便是非常富有经验的水库管理人员,对大型天然水库做出一个好的泄流方案也是异常复杂的。这是因为对水位有双重要求:既不能太高(导致过多的蒸发),也不能太低(导致干旱季节无法保证供水)。该方案不仅会影响水库的短期效率,也会影响其长期利用率,反过来又将提高决策的复杂性。论述了一个名为ORMADSS(全称为“天然水库泄流优化调度动态决策支持系统”)的新决策系统。该系统旨在帮助中型水库的管理人员做出复杂决策。这个极具视觉吸引力和大信息量的计算的实现是根据多年平均气候确定最优泄流方案,然后尝试把握特殊年份的泄流方案。如此一来,水库的库容就接近了平水年的最优水平,同时,仍然满足法律和环境的制约,以及水库用户的用水需求。在对南非第二大私有天然水库Keerom大坝的个案研究中讨论了ORMADSS的成功。所阐述和讨论的实际案例以及建模思想将为水库管理智能化提供可靠分析和部分经验,结合实际国情和水库建设情况开发出最适合自己的计算机决策支持系统。
Even a very experienced reservoir manager, making a good drain on large natural reservoirs can be extremely complex. This is due to the double requirement of the water level: neither too high (resulting in excessive evaporation) nor too low (resulting in a failure to guarantee water supply during the dry season). The program will not only affect the short-term efficiency of the reservoir, but also affect its long-term utilization, which in turn will increase the complexity of the decision-making. Discusses a new decision-making system called ORMADSS (fully named “Dynamic Decision Support System for Natural Reservoirs Discharge Optimization”). The system is designed to help managers of medium-sized reservoirs make complex decisions. This highly visually appealing and computationally informative calculation is based on years of mean climates in determining the optimum bleed solution and then trying out the bleed solution for a particular year. As a result, the reservoir capacity is close to the optimal level of the flat water year, while still meeting the legal and environmental constraints, as well as reservoir users of water needs. The success of ORMADSS was discussed in a case study of the Keerom Dam, the second largest private natural reservoir in South Africa. The actual cases and modeling ideas elaborated and discussed will provide reliable analysis and some experiences for reservoir management intelligentization, and develop the most suitable computer decision support system based on actual conditions and reservoir construction.