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为系统分析含硫油品储罐自燃的各影响因素,基于解释结构模型(ISM)方法的特点,结合事故致因理论,从人-物-环境-管理4个维度找出16个诱导含硫油品储罐自燃的影响因子,初步建立含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素的4级多层阶梯ISM。采用区间数互反判断矩阵,评估各含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素的大小;引入悲观度指数,改进和优化区间数层次模型,最终确定16个指标的权重。结果表明:影响含硫油品储罐自燃的4个维度,其重要度从高到低依次为管理、人、物和环境,因此,需加强对含硫原油生产工艺的日常监管。
In order to systematically analyze the influencing factors of spontaneous combustion of sulfur-containing oil storage tanks, based on the characteristics of ISM method and the accident-induced theory, 16 sulfur-inducing species The impact factors of spontaneous combustion of oil storage tank, and the initial establishment of 4-level multi-stage ISM with influence factors of spontaneous combustion of sulfur-containing oil storage tank. Interval number reciprocal judgment matrix was used to evaluate the influence factors of spontaneous combustion of sulfur-containing oil storage tanks. The pessimistic index was introduced to improve and optimize the interval number-level model, and the weight of 16 indicators was finally determined. The results show that the four dimensions that influence the spontaneous combustion of sulfur-containing oil storage tanks are management, people, objects and environment from high to low, therefore, the daily supervision of sulfur-containing crude oil production process should be strengthened.