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运用HJ和非参数T_n非线性因果检验方法对中国“经济增长—收入不平等—碳排放”三者间的因果关系进行了深入研究,研究结果表明:中国的经济发展主要呈现出“碳排放→经济增长→收入不平等”的单向非线性因果关系。碳排放是经济增长的非线性格兰杰原因,即碳排放的增加单向促进经济的增长,且影响较为长远;经济增长是导致城乡收入不平等的非线性格兰杰原因,短期内无法逆转其对收入分配的消极影响;城乡收入不平等程度的扩大在短期对经济增长有一定的促进作用,但长期来看是负相关关系。基于此,围绕实现中国经济的包容性绿色增长,提出了推进经济社会发展绿色化,提高农村地区的收入水平,形成合理有序的收入分配新格局等政策建议。
By using HJ and non-parametric T-n non-linear causality test method, the causal relationship between China and “economic growth-income inequality-carbon emission” has been deeply studied. The results show that China’s economic development mainly shows “ Carbon emissions → economic growth → income inequality ”one-way nonlinear causal relationship. Carbon emissions are the non-linear Granger causes of economic growth. That is, the increase of carbon emissions can promote economic growth unilaterally and has a long-term impact. Economic growth is the non-linear Granger cause of urban-rural income inequality, which can not be reversed in the short term Its negative impact on income distribution. The expansion of income inequality in urban and rural areas will certainly promote economic growth in the short run, but in the long run it is a negative correlation. Based on this, around the realization of inclusive green growth in China’s economy, some policy suggestions have been put forward, such as advancing the greenness of economic and social development, raising the income level in rural areas and forming a rational and orderly new pattern of income distribution.