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入世对中国就业的影响是部门性的,取决于每个部门的竞争力。一个产业的竞争力,来自于该产业对于该国比较优势的反应和调整能力。首先,中国农业比较优势下降,那些使用土地较多的农作物会立即遇到外国的竞争,将会缩小种植规模,相应地有一部分农民需要转移出来。其次,服务业在中国的比重偏低,同时具有较大的就业弹性,可以吸纳很大一部分农村转移劳动力。问题在于,中国的制造业是否继续具有吸收就业的潜力?改革以来中国工业结构的调整基本上是按照比较优势进行的。入世后制造业吸纳就业能力的问题就变成:中国是否具有发展制造业的比较优势,以及能否在今后许多年继
The impact of joining the WTO on employment in China is sectoral and depends on the competitiveness of each department. The competitiveness of an industry comes from the ability of the industry to respond to and adjust its comparative advantage. First of all, the comparative advantages of agriculture in China have declined. Those crops that use more land immediately face foreign competition and will reduce the scale of planting. Correspondingly, some peasants need to be transferred out. Second, the proportion of service industries in China is low, and at the same time, they have greater employment flexibility and can absorb a large part of rural migrant workers. The question is whether China’s manufacturing industry will continue to have the potential to absorb employment. Since the reform, the adjustment of China’s industrial structure has basically been conducted on the basis of comparative advantages. After the accession to the WTO, the manufacturing industry’s ability to absorb employability becomes: Does China have the comparative advantage of developing manufacturing industry, and whether it can continue for many years to come