GIS-based assessment of climate change impacts on forest habitable Aframomum corrorima (Braun) in So

来源 :山地科学学报(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:fuzhi2009
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Climate change is thought to have a greater impact on crops that require particular conditions for their productivity.Southwest Ethiopia is a region where important cash crops such as Coffea arabica and Aframomum corrorima (korerima)originate.These crops are known to require shade for their growth and productivity.This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on an important but neglected cash crop ofA.corrorima using GIS-based species distribution approaches.Local meteorological data and bioelimatic data from WoddClim were used to map past,present,and future distribution of the crop in the Coffee Forest System of Southwest Ethiopia.Moreover,96 key informants were interviewed and completed questionnaires to complement the distribution modeling.The key informants mapped the history and present occurrences of A.corrorima and based on this,ground-truthing survey was conducted.The interpolation method of the Inverse Distance Weighted was used in ArcGIS 10.5 to develop bioclimatic variables for modeling past and present distribution while data from IPCC (AR4) Emissions Scenarios was used for the future occurrence prediction using Principal Component Analysis.Eleven best bioclimatic variables were selected and MaxEnt was used to model past,present and future distribution ofA.corrorima.The output of our mod elwas validated using Area Under the Curve (AUC) approach.Temperature and precipitation are the most important environmental variable,then temperature increased by 1.3℃ in the past (from 1988 to 2o18) while it is predicted to increase further by at least 1.4℃ before 2050.On the contrary,precipitation decreased by an average of 10.1 mm from the past while it is predicted to decrease further by 12.5 mm before 2050.Our model shows that the area suitable for korerima in 1988 was 20,638.2 ha and it was reduced by half and became 10,545.3 ha in 2018,similarly predicted to shrink into 3225.5 ha by 2050.The findings from the key informants confirm the model results whereby 89.1% of the respondent replied korerima producing area has been shifted into the mountains over the last 30 years (by 150 m a.s.l.from 1988 to 2018) and thus expected to be pushing up in the next 32 years (by 133 m before 2050).The community claims that the length of the rainy season of the area has been shortening from 9 months in the past to an average of 5.5 months recently which also coincides with increasing temperature.We conclude that with the changing climatic condition,the suitable habitat of korerima has already shrank by 48.9% (from 1988 to 2018) and the trend may lead to a shrink by 84.38% before 2050 (from 1988 to 2050).Therefore,it is important to develop site-specific climate adaptation strategies for the region such as promoting alternative livelihoods and avoiding further coffee forest degradation and deforestation.
其他文献
通过弗西罗盆地的岩性、构造及地貌现象、测龄资料,对该区地貌的形成原因,地貌的演化模式等进行了分析和论证,提出该盆地的断陷成因及盆地的4个演化阶段及新构造的间歇性抬升
在开设“数学方法论”课程的理论研究与实践探索基础上,就开设课程的意义,内容设计、教学探索、成效与反思等方面进行了总结、分析与研究“,”Thispaperanalysesandstudiesso
该文给出群的一个没有结合公理的等价命题,利用此等价命题容易从一个Cayley表上看出,它是否为群的判定方法“,”Inthispaperwefirstgiveapropositionofthegroupwithoutassoci
对雷山县的莲花、大塘、西江等处的实地观察 ,报道了尾斑瘰螈夏季的栖息环境、生活习性和捕食场所及捕食行为“,”Through the investigation in Lianhua Datang and Xijing
该文利用随机微分方程的理论,对证券市场中股票价格行为进行了研究,并给出了相应的解释和模拟“,”Inthispaper,wediscusstheactionsofstockpricebyusingthetheoryofstochast
该文在Hausdorff线性拓扑空间的框架下 ,得到广义向量相补问题的解的存在性定理 ,其中利用了escaping序列的概念“,”In this paper, in Hausdorff topological vector space
分析了贵州省威宁县生产的自然条件、社会经济条件的优势与劣势 ,并探讨了区域可持续发展的战略措施.“,”The paper has analyzed the advantages and disaduantages both i
用琼脂平板扩散法 ,从定量的角度探讨了 4种百合科常见食用植物对G-大肠杆菌、志贺氏痢疾杆菌、G+金黄色葡萄球的生长抑菌作用 ,结果表明 4种植物对 3种细菌均有抑菌作用 ,但
原子激发态的自发跃迁使原子能级有一定宽度.此文以单价原子(如氢原子)为例,计算出了原子激发态的能级宽度,并讨论这个宽度对原子光谱产生的影响“,”Naturallytransitionsof
为了在草海自然保护区,既要发展农业经济,又要保护草海周围的生态环境,实现生态、经济、社会3效益统一.根据草海保护区的生态环境条件、农业生产现状及其对保护区生态环境的