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以不确定度分析作为确定型程序分析的补充，可以获得更丰富更全面的信息。讨论了燃料元件确定型分析程序输出响应不确定度的分析方法及其具体应用，编制了ＩＦＵＡ程序，并用它分析了秦山核电厂稳态满功率运行情况下燃料元件输出响应的不确定度。分析结果表明：满功率运行２４０ｄ，＂平均棒＂的芯块中心温度低于１４７３Ｋ，裂变气体释放份额小于１％，裂变气体释放份额的不确定度主要来自线功率密度的不确定度。裂变气体释放份额和芯块中心温度都服从贝塔分布。
With uncertainty analysis as a supplement to deterministic program analysis, richer, more comprehensive information can be obtained. The method of analyzing the uncertainty of output response of fuel cell deterministic analysis program and its application are discussed. The IFUA program is compiled and used to analyze the uncertainty of output response of fuel cell under steady state full power operation. The results show that the core temperature of “average rod” is lower than 1473K and the fraction of fission gas released is less than 1% at full power operation for 240 days. The uncertainty of the fraction of fission gas release comes mainly from the uncertainty of line power density. The fissile gas release fraction and the pellet center temperature obey the Beta distribution.