论文部分内容阅读
随着我国进入中等收入国家行列,以及近年来的经济增速下降,学术界乃至政界对“中等收入陷阱”的讨论渐起。研究发现,我们视之为陷入中等收入陷阱的许多国家,其实并未停止发展的步伐,只是其经济增长的速度较为缓慢,称为“经济增长缓坡”也许更为合理。关键在于,不能因为这种缓坡式的经济增长而轻视相关国家的经验。要警惕“较高的增长速度有利于一个国家跨越中等收入阶段,从而避免陷入陷阱的风险”的观点。这种观点的危险性在于会将全社会的目光聚焦于增长速度,并推动人们急功近利,继续以GDP至上的眼光看待社会经济发展,继而会带来严重的资源环境压力。以人力资本和技术进步为发展的重要资源可能是跨越发展峡谷的最好途径。
As our country has entered the ranks of middle-income countries and the economic growth in recent years has dropped, academic and even political circles are beginning to discuss the “middle income trap.” The study found that many countries that we view as falling into the middle-income trap have not actually stopped the pace of development, except that their economic growth is relatively slow. It may be more reasonable to call it “moderate economic growth.” The crux of the matter is that we should not underestimate the experience of the countries concerned because of this gradual economic growth. Be wary of the notion that “a higher rate of growth will help a nation cross the middle-income stage and thus avoid the risk of falling into a trap.” The danger of this view is that it will bring the whole society’s attention to the growth rate and promote people’s quick success and immediate social and economic development from a GDP-based perspective, which will in turn bring about serious pressure on resources and the environment. Important resources for the development of human capital and technological advancement may be the best way to cross the canyon.