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世界经济正处在一个深刻而广泛的变化过程之中,一场新的“造地”运动正在展开.一些经长期酝酿、积聚的动因,已进入猛烈释放其动能的态势,其中包括:(1)经济长周期运动正在经历下降波到上升波的转换.1939年开始的第三个康德拉季耶夫周期,经过1939-1972年的上升波之后转入下降波.截至1983年的11年间,爆发了两次石油危机、两次世界经济危机,构成世界经济主要部分的西方经济跌入了“滞胀”困境,全球经济增长势头逆转.但自1983年年底始,世界经济趋向复苏,持续增长已达7个年头,表明世界经济经猛烈的冲撞、错动、变迁和初步平衡之后,已渡过第三轮下降波的低谷阶段,进入了向第三个长周期的上升波转换的阶段.依照常规和现实状况,可以肯定,目前正是世界经济新结构在持续摩擦和动荡状态中展现其轮廊的时候.(2)新技术革命正以日益扩大的规模向前推进.被
The world economy is now undergoing a profound and wide process of change and a new “land-building” campaign is under way. Some of the motives for long-term brewing and accumulation have entered a situation of violent release of their kinetic energy, including: (1) Economic long-period movements are experiencing the conversion of the descending wave to the ascending wave The third Kondratiev cycle, which began in 1939, was transferred to the descending wave after the ascending wave of 1939 to 1972. As of 1983, 11 During the year, two oil crises broke out and two world economic crises broke out. The western economies that constituted the major part of the world economy fell into a doldrums and the global economic growth reversed. However, since the beginning of 1983, the world economy has been recovering, The sustained growth has reached seven years. It shows that after the violent collision, dislocation, change and initial balance of the world economy, the world economy has passed the trough of the third round of downside waves and entered the transition to the third long-term upward wave It is certain, according to both the conventional and the realities, that it is time for the new structure of the world economy to show its corridor in the midst of continued friction and turbulence. (2) The new technological revolution is advancing on an ever-expanding scale.