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未来三年世界经济将全面增长,其中发展中国家增长较快(年均5.9％),相应地,其能源需求增长速度(13.2％)远远大于世界平均水平(7.1％),石油需求增速(12.3％)也远高于世界平均水平(7.0％)。世界天然气需求的增长速度(8.2％)快于石油,而发展中国家天然气需求增长更快(18.0％)。天然气在世界一次能源消费结构中的比例将上升0.2个百分点。世界石油生产能力将以年均7.4％的速度递增,但欧佩克的生产能力上升较快(14.1％),其石油产量的增速(12.9％)也快于世界平均水平(6.9％)。随着石油需求的不断增加,预计未来三年世界油价稳中有升。
In the next three years, the world economy will grow at an all-round rate. Among them, developing countries will grow at an annual rate of 5.9% annually. Correspondingly, their energy demand growth rate (13.2%) is much larger than the world average of 7.1%. Oil demand growth (12.3%) is far above the world average (7.0%). Demand for natural gas in the world is growing faster (8.2%) than oil, while demand for natural gas in developing countries is growing faster (18.0%). The proportion of natural gas in the world primary energy consumption structure will increase 0.2 percentage points. The world’s oil production capacity will increase at an average annual rate of 7.4%. However, OPEC’s production capacity has risen rapidly (14.1%) and its oil output growth rate (12.9%) has also been faster than the world average of 6.9%. With the increasing demand for oil, the world oil price is expected to rise steadily in the next three years.