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一、经济前景再起波澜进入下半年以来,市场预期一直在向乐观的方向发展,似乎对于经济复苏的分歧正在缩小。然而10月份公布的经济数据却含有一些不和谐的声音,在我们看来,经济前景的不确定性再次增加。月末公布的三季度美国经济增长环比年率预估值为3.5%,优于市场预期(参见图1)。消费增长了3.4%,其中耐用消费品增长了5.2%,汽车贡献
First, the economic prospects again turmoil Since entering the second half, the market is expected to have been optimistic direction, it seems that the divergence of economic recovery is shrinking. However, the economic data released in October contained some discordant voices. In our opinion, the uncertainty of the economic outlook has once again increased. At the end of the third quarter, U.S. economy growth in the third quarter was estimated at 3.5% qoq, better than market expectations (see Figure 1). Consumption increased 3.4%, of which durable consumer goods increased 5.2%, contributed by cars