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发行公共债务是实施扩张性财政政策,进而刺激三次产业和经济增长的重要途径和有效手段。在理论分析的基础上,利用1981-2013年时间序列数据,建立可变参数状态空间模型,研究我国公共债务对实体经济及三次产业的动态影响特征。实证结果表明,公共债务流量和存量对我国实体经济及三次产业增长均具有正向的促进作用,其影响程度呈不断增强的态势,并且债务存量的产业增长效应强于债务流量;债务流量对第二产业的促进作用最为明显,而债务存量更能促进第三产业的增长。因此,在保持债务总量可控的前提下,应通过合理调整公共债务投资方向,促进产业结构调整和均衡发展,实现经济持续平稳增长。
Public debt issuance is an important and effective means of implementing the expansionary fiscal policy and further stimulating the three industries and economic growth. On the basis of theoretical analysis, we use the 1981-2013 time series data to establish a variable parameter state space model to study the dynamic impact of public debt on the real economy and tertiary industries in China. The empirical results show that the public debt flows and stocks have a positive effect on the growth of China’s real economy and tertiary industry, and the impact is on an increasing trend, and the industrial growth effect of debt stock is stronger than the debt flow. Debt flows to the The promotion of the secondary industry is the most obvious, while the debt stock can promote the growth of the tertiary industry. Therefore, under the premise of controlling the total amount of debt, we should adjust the direction of public debt investment and promote the adjustment of industrial structure and the balanced development so as to achieve sustained and steady economic growth.