Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

• 作 者: SUN Dan-Feng LI Hong R. DAWSON
• 机 构: College of Natural Resources and Environmental Science,Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry,C
• 出 处: 土壤圈（意译名）
• 发表日期: 2004年期
• 关键词: driving forces model grain availability Grain-for-Green Policy steep cultivated
• 基金项目: the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in University (PCSIRT),China;the Ministry of Land and Resources,China

The Grain-for-Green Policy in China could not only improve Chinas ecological quality, but also influence grain supplies for a short term. Based on data from the detailed nationwide land use survey in 1996 and the steep cultivated land survey update in 2000, a regression model for the driving forces affecting steep cultivated lands was developed, and cluster analysis was used to identify seven steep cultivated land types in order to analyze the grain availability impact of the project with land usage estimates for 2010 and 2030. The results suggested that consecutive days with minimum daily temperature over 10 ℃ and the dominant slope in a county constrained the spatial distribution of steep cultivated lands.In terms of socioeconomic factors, steep cultivated land was a complex interaction of population size, gross domestic production level, and the richness and quality of cultivated lands having slopes less than 15°. The trends for steep cultivated land in 2010 and 2030 were forecast using a driving forces model and Chinas grain security criteria and showed that the Grain-for-Green Policy at the national level would not cause a grain shortage or threaten food security criteria.However, if steep sloped lands were to be retired from production, some regions would need grain supplements as early as 2010. Also, assuming that only 60% of the cultivated land at the national level was needed, population and economic development pressures in 2030 would require some steep cultivated lands to be used for grain production.