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结合事故树法和专家调查法,确定山岭隧道施工中的风险因素集合与风险评判集合,并引入隶属度矩阵、熵权系数,建立了山岭隧道工程的动态风险管理模型。该模型以定量计算为特征,可实现对顶事件的风险概率计算、面向施工过程中的工况动态风险分析和控制。结合保阜高速公路隧道工程,应用建立的动态风险管理模型,对洞口掘进施工阶段进行了风险分析,并依据得到的风险等级,提出了相应的风险控制措施。
Combined with the method of accident tree and expert investigation, the set of risk factors and risk evaluation in mountain tunnel construction are determined, and membership matrix and entropy coefficient are introduced to establish the dynamic risk management model of mountain tunnel. The model is characterized by quantitative calculation, which can realize the risk probability calculation of overhead events and face the dynamic risk analysis and control of working conditions in the construction process. Combined with the Bao Fu expressway tunnel project, a dynamic risk management model was established to analyze the risk during the tunneling construction phase and put forward corresponding risk control measures according to the obtained risk level.