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城市增长边界是对城市空间增长管理的重要技术和政策之一,对于资源枯竭型城市的可持续发展也具有重要意义。依据资源枯竭型城市的特点,选取了自然因素和人为因素对淮北市城市生态适宜性进行评价;以城市扩张内部动力为基础,从土地利用类型转变的概率角度出发,引入8种空间变量因素建立逻辑回归的元胞自动机模型,其次,辅助近期建设规划,再综合考虑淮北市自然和行政边界线等合理划定城市增长边界。结果表明:1)在生态适宜性高、中、低三种水平下,用地规模逐步上升,分别为:127.90、203.77和590.00 km~2;2)依据元胞自动机模拟得到城市扩展用地有效面积为203.45 km~2,占研究区面积的22.07%;3)最终得到研究区城市增长边界面积为259.43 km~2,占研究区面积的28.15%。研究既明确了区域生态资源的保护范围,又综合考虑了城市的空间拓展方向,不仅可以保护生态空间,而且有利于有序引导城市空间发展,是实现资源枯竭型城市转型和精明增长双赢的重要途径。
The urban growth boundary is one of the important technologies and policies for urban spatial growth management, and is also of great significance to the sustainable development of resource-exhausted cities. Based on the characteristics of resource-exhausted cities, natural and anthropogenic factors were selected to evaluate the urban ecological suitability in Huaibei City. Based on the internal dynamics of urban expansion, eight spatial variable factors were introduced from the perspective of the probability of land-use type transitions Logistic regression cellular automaton model, and second, to assist the recent construction planning, and then comprehensively consider the boundary of natural and administrative boundary of Huaibei City and other reasonable delineation of urban growth boundary. The results showed that: 1) The scale of land use gradually increased under the high, medium and low eco-suitability levels: 127.90, 203.77 and 590.00 km ~ 2, respectively; 2) Based on the cellular automata simulation, the effective area of urban land for expansion Which is 203.45 km ~ 2, accounting for 22.07% of the total area of the study area. 3) The final urban growth boundary area of the study area is 259.43 km 2, accounting for 28.15% of the total area of the study area. The research not only clarifies the scope of the protection of regional ecological resources but also comprehensively considers the direction of spatial expansion of cities. It not only can protect the ecological space but also helps to guide the development of urban space in an orderly manner, which is important to achieve a win-win situation in resource-exhausted cities’ transformation and smart growth way.