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Hiemstra and Jones(1994) argued that a significant negative value of their nonlinear Granger causality test(H-J test) means there is a confounding effect in the prediction.However,from the theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations,the authors find that H-J test is significantly negative under the circumstance of negative volatility spillover.Furthermore,the authors put forward the conceptions of positive/negative nonlinear spillover,and apply H-J test to examine positive/negative nonlinear spillover effect.The empirical study on China stock futures and spot markets shows that:1) There is significant positive nonlinear spillover from futures to spot market;2) There is significant negative nonlinear spillover from spot to futures market.The authors argue that there is “risk absorption” mechanism in information spillover from the spot market to the futures market,which is due to the temporal transfer of speculative trading from the analysis.
Hiemstra and Jones (1994) argued that a significant negative value of their nonlinear Granger causality test (HJ test) means there is a confounding effect in the prediction. However, from the theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, the authors find that HJ test is significant negative under the circumstance of negative volatility spillover .Furthermore, the authors put forward the conceptions of positive / negative nonlinear spillover, and apply HJ test to examine positive / negative nonlinear spillover effect. The empirical study on China stock futures and spot markets that that : 1) There is significant positive nonlinear spillover from futures to spot market; 2) There is significant negative nonlinear spillover from spot to futures market. the futures market, which is due to the temporal transfer of speculative trading from the analysis.