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铁路在我国综合运输体系中占有重要地位。早年孙中山先生曾对我国铁路网总规模提出了设想。解放后铁道部又多次编制了规划。本文作者参考国外预测方法,将主要城市和客货集散点,以及连接线作为基本因子,预测并提出了我国铁路发展总规模。 铁路网规模预测,涉及因素众多,包含了自然、社会、经济等诸多方面。经过分析,我认为考虑铁路网发展的主要因素为人口数量、生产力布局、区域经济发展、社会进步、国防和外贸等。这些因素构成了旅客和货物运输的需求。
Railway occupies an important position in China’s comprehensive transport system. Early Mr. Sun Yat-sen had put forward the idea of the total size of China’s railway network. After the liberation of the Ministry of Railways has repeatedly prepared a plan. With reference to the methods of foreign prediction, the author of this paper predicts and proposes the total scale of railway development in our country, taking the major cities and passenger and freight distribution points and connecting lines as the basic factors. The forecast of railway network scale involves many factors, including nature, society, economy and many other aspects. After analysis, I think the main factors for considering the development of the railway network are population size, productivity distribution, regional economic development, social progress, national defense and foreign trade. These factors constitute the demand for passenger and cargo transport.