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本文分析了中国经济金融的运行逻辑,认为消费不足、产能过剩的根源在于居民在国民收入分配中的份额太低,而国有部门储蓄过度。金融市场中,城投公司等预算软约束主体的存在使利率市场化改革反而加重了金融扭曲。要平衡中国实体经济,理顺金融体系,需要兼顾理想与现实,找出切实可行的出路。而最为关键的是要坚持我国改革开放的成功经验,坚持以发展为目标,并允许改革试错。
This paper analyzes the operational logic of China’s economy and finance and argues that consumption is inadequate. The root causes of overcapacity lie in the fact that the share of residents in the distribution of national income is too low while the state-owned sectors have excess savings. In the financial market, the existence of the subject of soft budget constraint such as the city investment company made the market-oriented interest rate reform aggravate the financial distortions instead. To balance China’s real economy and straighten out the financial system, we must balance the ideals and reality and find out a practical way out. The most crucial point is that we must uphold the successful experience of China’s reform and opening up, adhere to the goal of development and allow trial and error in reform.