那些身边的非显著信号

• 作 者: 皮帕·马尔姆格林
• 出 处: 金融博览
• 发表日期: 2017年12期
• 关键词: 概率性 黑天鹅 世界经济 犀牛 货币对 我的母亲 交易大厅 什么时候 季节性 人生之路

近期社会热议的灰犀牛、黑天鹅等概率性危机的背后,是我们对身边的非显著信号缺乏足够的警觉和重视。那些关于世界经济的信号有趣而且重要,但同时也很容易被忽视。一些信号容易被接收、翻译,我们也很容易照此行事。当小孩子哭的时候,我们会对其悲伤作出反应;红灯亮时,我们就停车;我们的货币对欧元或上涨或下跌,我们因此计划或取消去欧洲的旅行。

Behind the recent crisis of social crisis, such as gray rhinos and black swans, we are not sufficiently vigilant and valued about the non-significant signals around us. The signals about the world economy are interesting and important, but they are also easily overlooked. Some signals are easily received and translated, and we can easily act on it. When children cry, we react to their grief; we stop when the red light is on; and our currency is up or down against the euro, so we plan or cancel our trip to Europe.