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本文利用中国1985~2011年和日本1970~2011年的实际经济数据,采用HP滤波方法获取周期数据,实证分析了中日总产出波动与消费结构演变关系。研究发现:第一,相关性检验显示,中日消费价格波动呈现顺周期,中日两国耐用消费品易变性均大于非耐用消费品,但中国消费价格波动较日本强烈;第二,中日消费支出波动均比总产出波动强烈,中日各消费项目的易变性,分界点(中国1995年,日本1985年)前大于分界点后;第三,中国经济体制改革对消费支出易变性贡献较高,而日本则主要源于外部能源价格冲击、内部收入倍增计划以及日本作为发达国家的居民消费意识;第四,格兰杰短期因果关系检验显示,中日消费结构演变与经济发展之间均存在相互作用机制,在外部需求因素不确定的情况下,中日两国均有必要提振消费需求,保证经济的持续稳定发展。
Using the actual economic data from 1985 to 2011 in China and from 1970 to 2011 in Japan, this paper uses HP filter method to obtain periodic data, and empirically analyzes the relationship between the fluctuations in total output of China and Japan and the evolution of consumption structure. The findings are as follows: Firstly, the correlation test shows that the fluctuation of consumer prices in China and Japan has a pro-cyclicality. The volatility of consumer durables in both China and Japan is greater than that of non-durable consumer goods. However, the fluctuation in consumer prices in China is stronger than that in Japan. Second, Volatility fluctuated more than total output. The volatility of consumption items in China and Japan was larger than the demarcation point before the demarcation point (China 1995, Japan 1985). Third, the reform of China’s economic system contributed more to the volatility of consumer spending , While Japan is mainly due to external energy price shocks, internal revenue doubled plan and Japan’s awareness of consumer spending in developed countries. Fourthly, Granger’s short-term causality test shows that both the evolution of consumption structure and economic development in China and Japan exist In the case of uncertainties in external demand, both China and Japan need to boost consumer demand and ensure a sustained and steady economic development.