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对华北地区1970年以来ML4．0以上地震的月相效应进行了分析。结果表明，华北地区Ms5．0以上地震活动的月相效应并不明显，而是呈现较强的随机性。但在7级以上强震发生前，中等地震的发生具有较为明显的月相效应，这对7级以上强震的发生具有中期（1～3年）预测意义。未来强震可能发生在“朔望地震”分布的地区。目前，华北地区中等地震发生没有显示明显的月相效应，因此未来1～2年内华北地区发生7级以上地震的可能性较小。
The lunar phase effect of ML4.0 earthquake in North China since 1970 was analyzed. The results show that the moon phase effect of Ms5.0 and above in North China is not obvious, but shows a strong randomness. However, the occurrence of moderate earthquakes has a relatively obvious moon phase effect before the occurrence of a strong earthquake of magnitude 7 or above, which has a medium-term (1-3 years) prediction significance for the occurrence of a strong earthquake of magnitude 7 or above. Strong earthquakes in the future may occur in areas where the “Moonshine Earthquake” is distributed. At present, the moderate earthquakes in North China do not show obvious moon phases, so it is less likely that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above will occur in North China in the next 1 to 2 years.