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济阳坳陷现阶段地层圈闭钻前成藏风险预测难度较大,探井成功率低。对“十五”以来济阳坳陷钻探地层圈闭的探井进行精细解剖,因输导条件差、油气充满度低、缺少有效储层和圈闭不落实等因素失利的探井比例分别为49%,21%,15%和15%;成藏主控因素分析表明,正向构造背景及近邻油源断层是地层圈闭成藏的关键。在此分析基础上,明确了影响地层圈闭成藏的地质条件主要为运聚条件、保存条件、圈闭条件和储层条件。根据济阳坳陷地层圈闭各地质条件下的评价要素,建立了钻前地层圈闭成藏风险评价方法,并对其进行了验证。结果表明,评价结果与实际钻探结果吻合率较高,济阳坳陷地质风险系数高的金平2、埕东112等地层圈闭均成藏,地质风险系数低的草327、车93等地层圈闭均未成藏。
The pre-drilling reservoir formation risk prediction of the stratigraphic trap at the present stage in Jiyang Depression is very difficult, and the exploration success rate is low. The exploration wells trapped in the drilling stratum in the Jiyang depression since the 10th Five-year Plan period were finely dissected. The proportion of exploratory wells lost due to poor transport conditions, low oil and gas fill, lack of effective reservoirs, and failure to implement traps were 49%, 21%, 15% and 15%, respectively. The analysis of main controlling factors of the reservoirs shows that the positive tectonic setting and the fault of the adjacent oil source are the keystones of the formation trap. On the basis of this analysis, it is clarified that the geological conditions that affect the formation of stratigraphic trap are mainly the migration and accumulation conditions, storage conditions, trapping conditions and reservoir conditions. According to the evaluation factors under various geological conditions of stratigraphic traps in the Jiyang depression, a risk assessment method of reservoir formation before drilling is established and verified. The results show that the agreement between the evaluation results and the actual drilling results is high, and the formation traps such as Jinping 2 and 埕dong 112 with high geological risk coefficient in the Jiyang Depression are all formed by the formation traps, such as Caochang 327 and Chebei 93 with low geological risk coefficient Closed are not formed.