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考虑影响边坡稳定性的主要因素强度参数c、φ的不确定性,以蒙特卡洛法计算结果作为可靠性分析的基准解,在极限平衡法理论框架下开展不同可靠性评价方法之间的对比研究.采用c、φ为基本随机变量建立二次多项式响应面,以重构功能函数,并结合一次可靠度法和蒙特卡洛法进行边坡可靠性分析.通过对均质边坡的圆弧滑动破坏、非均质边坡的非圆弧滑动破坏、三峡库区谭家坪滑坡破坏这3个案例的可靠性分析结果对比得出:1)二次多项式响应面法原理简单,对于隐式功能函数,有较好的计算精度和求解效率,适用于可靠性分析的近似计算,特别是在参数服从正态分布的情况下,能够达到很高的精度;2)求解响应面时应优先采用Spencer法、MorgensternPrice法,对圆弧滑动面边坡,也可以选用简化Bishop法.
Considering the uncertainties of the strength parameters c and φ which are the main factors that affect the stability of the slope, Monte Carlo method is used as the benchmark solution to the reliability analysis, and the reliability evaluation method is carried out under the theoretical framework of the limit equilibrium method By using c and φ as the basic random variables, the quadratic polynomial response surface is established to reconstruct the functional function, and the reliability analysis of the slope is carried out by combining the first reliability method with the Monte Carlo method. Arc sliding failure, non-circular sliding heterogeneous slope failure, the Three Gorges reservoir area Tanjiaping landslide damage reliability analysis of the three cases were drawn: 1) quadratic polynomial response surface method is simple, the implicit function Function, has better calculation accuracy and solving efficiency, suitable for the approximate calculation of reliability analysis, especially in the case of parameters subject to normal distribution, to achieve high accuracy; 2) When solving the response surface should give priority to Spencer Method, MorgensternPrice method, on the arc sliding surface slope, you can also choose to simplify the Bishop method.