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后发地区的经济发展和经济增长具有明显的政府和政策规划和拉动的痕迹,由于历史和社会综合环境的影响,后发地区交通基础设施落后,传统理论认为,落后的交通严重制约了区域经济的发展,因此后发地区政府都在不遗余力地促进交通基础设施建设。为了衡量后发地区公路建设的成效以及与经济增长的适应性,以重庆市“公路-区域经济”复合系统1985年-2010年的数据为研究对象,在分析两个子系统的运行效率的基础上,建立自回归分布滞后和VEC模型,并进行脉冲仿真,诠释后发地区的经济和交通的互动模式以及效果。分析发现,只有交通成为经济发展的真正制约和瓶颈,额外的交通投资或者交通基础设施建设才能带来额外的经济增长。后发地区政府推行的交通导向的发展(transit-oriented development)战略有可能是无效的。
Due to the historical and social environment, the transportation infrastructure in the late developed areas lags behind. The traditional theory holds that the backward transportation severely restricts the development of the regional economy Therefore, the governments in later regions are sparing no efforts to promote the construction of transportation infrastructure. In order to measure the effect of road construction in future area and its adaptability to economic growth, taking the data of Chongqing-highway-regional economy / compound system from 1985 to 2010 as the research object, the paper analyzes the operation efficiency of the two subsystems Based on the establishment of lagged autoregressive distribution and VEC model, and pulse simulation, interpretation of the economic and traffic after the departure of the interactive mode and effect. The analysis shows that only when transportation becomes the real constraint and bottleneck of economic development, additional transportation investment or transportation infrastructure can bring about additional economic growth. Transit-oriented development may be ineffective by late-stage governments.