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中国股市的市盈率一向备受指责,主要批评其过于高企,造成股价与上市公司收益不匹配,股市充满泡沫容易引发股价下跌时的多米诺骨牌效应,危及金融体系的安全。因此中央银行自七月份起清理违规资金,试图挤掉中国股市的泡沫,以保证加入WTO后,整个金融体系的安全与稳健。但我们首先应肯定中国高市盈率判断的正确性,高到什么程度?清理违规资金降低市盈率是治标还是治本?对整个宏观经济的负面影响有多大,即成本问题。
The price-earnings ratio in China’s stock market has been widely criticized. Its main criticism is that it is too high, causing mismatch between the stock price and the income of the listed company. A bubble full of stocks is likely to trigger a domino effect when stock prices fall, jeopardizing the security of the financial system. Therefore, the Central Bank has cleared illegal funds since July and tried to squeeze out the bubble in China’s stock market to ensure the safety and stability of the entire financial system after its accession to the WTO. But first of all, we should affirm the correctness of the high price-earnings ratio in China, to what extent? To clean up the illegal funds to reduce the price-earnings ratio is a temporary solution or a cure? The negative impact on the macroeconomic as a whole, namely the cost.