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央行,特别是欧洲及中国央行的政策行动,将会是当前的规避风险环境会否长期持续的关键所在。渣打预测,美国债券收益率会上升,但加息周期延后的风险正在增加。亚欧经济增长放缓,美国经济亦有可能受埃博拉疫情影响,市场波幅因而显著扩大。虽然此等因素可主导短线市场情绪,但大环境仍然利好股票及美元,尤其是在美国及欧洲方面。近期形势发展应会令宽松货币政策设置的力度加大,有利于多元收益配置主题。
The central bank, especially the European Central Bank and China’s policy actions, will be the key to the current long-term sustainability of risk-averse environment. Standard Chartered predicts that U.S. bond yields will rise, but the risks of a delay in raising interest rates are on the rise. Economic growth in Asia and Europe has slowed down and the U.S. economy is also likely to be affected by the Ebola epidemic. As a result, market volatility has expanded significantly. Although these factors can dominate the short-term market sentiment, the broader environment still favors stocks and the U.S. dollar, especially in the United States and Europe. The recent development of the situation should make it easier to set loose monetary policy and be conducive to the theme of diversified income distribution.